The key aspect when betting on football matches is deciding how many goals are likely to be scored. The number of goals in a game is measured primarily by two factors, the relative strength of the sides playing and the goals records of the teams.This sounds obvious, but read on and see how The Sportsman is on to another winner…
The greater the goal difference between the two sides the greater the potential for goals. The goals expectation for matches are published in newspapers such as the Racing and Football Outlook.
The higher likelihood of goals expressed in the goals expectation then the shorter the odds for lines such as over 2.5 goals issued by bookmakers. Unfortunately it is unlikely you will be getting value as the paper evaluation you have is also available
along with many more pointers to the layers.
The key is to form your own method of estimating the number of goals likely to be scored and the following is one way of doing so:
During a televised match you will see stats flick up on the screen and often one of these will be shots on and off target. Aside from the volume of possession of a team, the total number of shots can be the best gauge to a side’s performance and likelihood of scoring goals.
As an example let’s take a look at debatably, the big match of the weekend, Chelsea at home to Liverpool on Sunday. Chelsea have played 11 matches in the Premier League at the Bridge this season and have had 164 shots, either on or off target. With 24 goals scored this means they are hitting the back of the net once in every 6.82 shots.
That’s actually good shooting as over many years a goal can be calculated on average to be scored once in every nine attempts at goal. Liverpool have had 130 shots away from home this season resulting in 11 goals. An average of one goal every 11.81 shot attempts at goal – quite a difference.
That adds credence to the probability of Chelsea winning this match and also acts as an aid with the likelihood of total goals. Chelsea’s average shots at goal (at home) in the League this season is 15 rounded up/down (164 shots/11 matches). Given that Chelsea are scoring with every 7th shot (rounded) then their match goals expectation is 2.
Liverpool’s away goals expectation is 1 goal for every 12th shot (rounded) , and as their only averaging 10.83 shots per game Liverpool would need to over perform to rattle the onion bag.
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This method can also be useful when betting the overs/under goals lines in running. If Chelsea have had five strikes at goal in a match then their first goal may not be long in coming. Of course Chelsea now have Torres in their ranks while Liverpool will be missing new signing Andy Carroll but that only adds to the argument Chelsea are more likely winners come Sunday.
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