The Premier League is the most popular league in the world for punters.
Therefore the chances of finding value for money in match price markets are small. The odds compilers invariably make the top three teams too short to limit losses on potential accumulators. How then can we eke out some value from Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal ?
Hopefully the following will give some food for thought before you head to the bookies with that three team treble that pays around evens.
Goals are a common theme where Arsenal are concerned. In season 2009-2010 the last goal of the match was scored after 75 minutes in 68% of all Arsenal matches. This equates to a 1.47 chance or to round up in fractional odds, a 1-2 shot. By accepting even money in running for another goal after 74 minutes, you would in the long run be quids in.
Also last season 25 out of 38 Arsenal matches ended with three or more goals. The odds equivalent of another 1-2 shot, 1.53 in decimal odds. When you think there will be goals in an Arsenal match, step in when your offered 8-15 or better as you will be getting a shade of value on last season’s statistics.
Laying the half time 0-0 draw can also pay dividends where the Gunners are involved. Only two of their matches were goal-less at half time last season. The handicap route with Arsenal at home is also a big runner.
Take out some of their closest foes i.e. Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Manchester City and in fifteen matches they defeated their opposition by at least two goals. The true odds for Arsenal to win -1 goal against any other side apart from the aforementioned four is around 1-7 going on last season’s numbers. Another strong theme from the North London team to consider are the corners; they are crying out to be backed in the corner supremacy market. Last season they won most corners in 32 out of 38 matches, a 1-5 shot.
The odds will be very prohibitive when Arsenal are at home to lower strength sides in the League (at the Emirates) for the team with most corners, hence look at the corner handicaps market. Are they worth backing minus say four corners? Will a goal or two come early taking the sting out of their attacking play. Will they be constantly thwarted in their attempt to score and their corner count rack up? All pointers to be taken into consideration.
I won’t dwell too long on Manchester United as their was a column put up about the side a few weeks ago on how to make money in their matches. It is to be noted however that Manchester United had an identical record to Arsenal in the over/under 2.5 goals line in season 09-10. 25 of their matches also ended up with three goals or more, another 1-2 shot. A quick reminder that betting a goal after 74 minutes in their matches can be rewarding with that result occurring in over 70% of their matches last season. A contributory factor to this statistic is the well publicised amount of injury time that has been added on to their matches. In the last four seasons when Manchester United have been behind at Old Trafford the average added injury time has been over four minutes per match. Much higher than other Premier League sides over the same time span.
Chelsea were the Kings of over the goals line last season. 27 out of their 38 matches finished with three plus goals. That’s the equivalent of a 2-5 shot. The over the 2.5 goals line was particularly attributable to their home matches taking out the same four closest opponents, Arsenal, Liverpool and the two Manchester sides. Again laying the 0-0 at half-time can lead to riches with only three of their games being goalless after forty-five minutes of play. If you fancy Chelsea away to Liverpool and the two Manchester sides then don’t hesitate to back them to be winning at half time and full time. They did this three times from four last season and you will be getting over double the match market odds. So goals galore as far as the big three teams are concerned and one of the key reasons why there are a lot of goals is that they set out to win almost every match they play.
So next time you head to your local betting shop consider this. Would you walk in to pub next door and pay ten quid for a pint? No, nor would I. But when asked to take odds of 1-6 or 1-7 about a 1-4 or 2-9 shot in the match markets it’s the same thing. If your not getting value for money in any walk of life you will be lighter in the pocket.
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