Tottenham Hotspur finds itself in unfamiliar territory as the Premier League enters its final quarter or so of the season: staring down the brink of relegation. And if they are unable to fend it off, it could cost the club $300 million (€250 million).
Entering match play on March 1, Tottenham will be sitting 16th in the Premier League standings. That leaves them two spots outside of relegation territory, with little to no margin for error. The Lilywhites are a mere two points ahead of the 17th-place Nottingham Forest and four points ahead of the 18th-place West Ham United.
Many are predicting Hotspur will avoid dropping down to the Championship division. Yet, the number of people attempting to capitalize on their fall this year is on the rise. As the folks over at MyTopSportsbooks note, fading the most popular futures can be among the most lucrative soccer betting techniques. More and more people are investing in Tottenham’s relegation—so much so that the prospective payouts are no longer as large as they were even just a couple of weeks ago.
Tumbling at least two spots in the standings over the next 11 matches is a real possibility. At the very least, following their disastrous 4-1 loss on February 22 to Arsenal, falling outside the top 17 is more likely than it was before. And that forces the franchise to confront some very real, very painful, financial realities.
Tottenham has a Truckload of Money on the Line
On the heels of Igor Tudor’s debut at the helm for Hotspur, Jack Johnson of Talk Sport dug into how much money the club stands to lose from relegation. With insight from football finance expert Kieran Maguire, the piece explains that Tottenham could be out more than a quarter-billion dollars:
“That’s right [relegation would be a financial disaster for Tottenham]. I think if you go from Champions League, where they are at present, to the Championship, we’re probably looking at a potential reduction in revenue of around about £250million. They will be in receipt of parachute payments, instead of the money they get from the Premier League. Last year they got £127million from the Premier League. It would be £45million in terms of parachute payments. They won’t get any of the money from the Champions League [where] they’ve earned £70million to date. Plus, they’ve got gate receipts from those matches…And then you’ve got to look at their sponsors. They’ve got a £40m deal with AI, they’ve got the big deal with Nike. There’s likely to be relegation clauses in those as well.”
This can be summed up in one word: sheesh.
Make no mistake, relegation is a pain in the you-know-what regardless of the club being impacted. But it is an even bigger calamity for a club that considers itself a flagship franchise.
Hotspur fans are nothing if not loyal. They can write off a down year. But this is the second consecutive season in which Tottenham registers as a complete non-threat. They finished 17th in the Premier League standings, one spot out of relegation territory. Of course, they were 13 points ahead of the 18th-place Leicester City, but that’s hardly something about which to brag.
The Lilywhites are Promising Big Changes if They Avoid Relegation
If fans are looking for a silver lining from this entire ordeal, it’s that Spurs seem prepared to invest heavily in improvements if they can stave off relegation.
The club has come under siege for the way it handles payroll over the past few seasons. Their payroll structure is considered stubborn and not conducive to building the best possible group.
There is definitely some truth to this sentiment. Tottenham has the Premier League’s eighth-highest payroll, according to Spotrac. It was the same story last year. While this is far from bargain-bin territory, top squads like Manchester United, Manchester City and Arsenal all have substantially higher payrolls.
Fans and analysts are right to be skeptical of promises that outline any major changes. How could they not be after how the past two seasons have unfolded?
Still, the signing of midfielder Conor Gallgher from Atlético Madrid this past January is seen as a major inflection point. His $239,000 (£200,000) weekly salary is seen by many as proof of Tottenham’s determination to rework its spending habits.
Can Tottenham Avoid Relegation?
The answer to this question will vary in the eye of the beholder. Some are so down on Tottenham that they’re ready to declare relegation an inevitability. Relative to the inconsistent play they’ve watched as well as the club’s onslaught of injuries, it is tough to blame them.
For what it’s worth, though, Opta Analyst recently ran a prediction model for how the Premier League season will conclude. The results give Tottenham a 4.58 percent chance of being relegated. Statistically speaking, they are expected to finish right where they are now: in 16th place.
Staying put would be far from a major victory. It’s also not the worst-possible. That honor belongs to finishing 18th or less—something that may still seem statistically unlikely, but has become a very real possibility thanks to Tottenham’s second straight disastrous season.
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