The Sportsman knows. Fortunately we know the Sportsman. Here’s this week’s good stuff.
I generally price up the weekend football matches on a Thursday after the midweek games are done and dusted. It would be highly unusual for me to find more than three matches in the whole UK card where the prices look askew in the match market odds.
That’s why I mostly operate in subsidiary markets as the layers offer poor lines in comparison with true odds. There is the option of Asian handicap’s which can offer more value but I would only take this route if I fancied the underdog to do well.
It can be most frustrating when needing a favourite at home to win -2 when they have obviously given up on scoring more goals when sitting 2-0 up with 15 minutes to go and a big midweek European match lying in wait. The subsidiary markets are where the value lies.
A quick look at ten years of previous years of results tells me where I have been profitable and unprofitable over the years. I take out all the unprofitable markets over that period of time when looking at the weekends matches. That leaves me primarily with the following markets which have been winning ones over the years: goals lines, corners lines and bookings lines.
Lets have a quick perusal individually at a few of those specific markets with the weekends matches in mind.
Over 2.5 goals has been a clarion call for Blackpool with their gung- ho spirit in the Premier League. Unfortunately they play Fulham at the weekend and the London side tend to keep things tight. Manchester United over the years have been good for goals but the price is often very tight on over 2.5 with the expectation of the layers that they can record a comfortable success.
Upton Park has been good for goals but will the price be worthwhile? Of interest this weekend is the fact that there has been a goal in the last 15 minutes of Wigan’s home matches in five of the last seven. On Saturday they face Spurs and in nine of their last eleven away matches there has been a goal from 75 to 90 minutes. Around the evens mark a goal in the last 20 minutes could be a shrewd investment.
Under 2.5 goals is always worth a secondary look when Stoke are at home. With Chelsea being away to the “Potters” the layers might over estimate the chances of goals and a check on the price for under 2.5 goals is suggested.
With regards to corners totals Aston Villa are the Premier League corners kings and any match they participate the corners line must be looked at. This Saturday they are away to Everton who are averaging 7.08 corners per match at home, the total corners market should go on the shortlist awaiting layers prices. Manchester City over the past few years have proved fruitful to follow to gain most corners at home.
To obtain a working man’s price though you have to look at playing them on a handicap and they have only covered -2 in 4 from 11 home matches this term.
For low card counts head for Fulham. 73% of their home matches have gone under 3.5 cards this season and in Blackpool’s away matches 75% of their games have went under 3.5 cards.
If your old school and still punting only on match odds markets it may be time to re-educate yourself in the stats based subsidiary markets to reach the top of the betting class.
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